On 28 May, wine industry leaders, stakeholders, and media convened at Endler Hall in Stellenbosch to assess the future of South African wine. Speakers at the summit took stock of the economic headwinds, climate realities, and global trends that affect the production and consumption of South African wine daily.
Economic recovery faces global pressures
Nicky Weimar, Chief Economist at Nedbank, the event’s main sponsor, surveyed the positive trends in South Africa’s energy, rail and port infrastructure. She noted that structural and policy reforms have lowered the country’s risk premium, while sound fiscal discipline has led to a welcome sovereign risk rating upgrade. “National Treasury believes fiscal policy will turn a corner this year, with the peak in the debt burden behind us, but this momentum hasn’t quite translated into enough positive growth yet,” she said.
Despite South Africa’s economic recovery, bolstered by strong consumer spending and a resilient rand, Nicky warned that an interest rate hike seemed unavoidable – a prediction realised yesterday when the South African Reserve Bank increased the repo rate by 25 basis points. An increasingly volatile world casts a long shadow over global trade, affecting international competition, seaborne trade and oil supplies, leaving South Africa vulnerable to supply shocks and high inflation. “Disposable income is the biggest driver of consumer spending, but when diesel prices rise, and inflation goes up, they can drive down consumer spending even up to two years later.”
Heritage and innovation
South Africa Wine CEO Rico Basson provided an overview of the wine industry’s development, drawing lessons from past successes. Amid increased competition from other categories, consumers are drinking less wine and seeking value. “The industry is not shrinking, it is restructuring around value,” he said. “Heritage and innovation are not opposites. They are mutually reinforcing.”
On a positive note, Rico revealed that net farm revenue per hectare has improved significantly in 2025. Unfortunately, a combination of waning consumption and oversupply erodes value. Globally, growth will come from a more diversified, value-led, tailored strategy across international markets.
Rico stressed the importance of aligning with regulation by building on low-alcohol and wine-based innovations, committing to ESG standards as a condition of market access, investing in people as the foundation of a globally competitive industry, and moving from a reactive to an intelligent data ecosystem to drive decision-making, competitiveness and resilience.
His overarching conviction is that South Africa’s 367-year winemaking heritage provides a solid foundation for innovation and reinvention. “We need to attract the next generation. This is possible by doing what we do well, cleaning up our act and coordinating our approach.”
The 2026 vintage
Reflecting on the past harvest, Dr Etienne Terblanche, Consultation Team Manager at Vinpro, described a pendulum of extremes – a good winter gave way to drought stress and early véraison, and heatwaves followed heavy downpours in February and March. He praised proactive growers who adapted quickly to the rapid ripening and disease windows and managed to preserve quality despite a compressed timeline.
Both white and red cultivars benefited from their skilful vineyard management. White cultivars show well-balanced sugar and acid levels, with clear juice settling. “Due to the March heat, Sauvignon Blanc exhibits fewer characteristic green or herbaceous aromas, instead favouring robust tropical and stone fruit characteristics,” he said.
Red cultivars such as Cabernet Sauvignon, Pinotage, and Shiraz exhibit outstanding overall quality, with uniform ripening and deep colour extraction. “The early-season drought resulted in notably smaller berries, producing fully developed, concentrated, and complex flavour profiles with excellent structure.”
Decoding the next generation
South African entrepreneur, author, and speaker GG Alcock helped bust several myths about the next generation of wine consumers by offering a glimpse into South Africa’s underestimated informal economy. His book, Kasinomics Unleashed, describes the rapid suburbanisation of townships and a growing middle class whose lifestyle is reshaping the consumer landscape. “Premiumisation is accelerating, along with casual dining and dwell time,” he said.
He cites the surprising statistic that 84% of township households now live in formal dwellings – most of them are smaller households of 1-3 people. These “kasipolitans” spend disproportionately more on electronics, food, fashion, beauty, and social experiences, driving a significant informal business sector worth at least R1 trillion – including 45 000 licensed on-premise alcohol outlets. They’re a natural fit for premium and lifestyle categories.
GG argues that this emerging consumer group must be understood through culture rather than economics. Brands need to speak their language – usually colloquial English – and engage through authentic, community-rooted storytelling on platforms such as WhatsApp (29m users) and Facebook (26m users). He believes wine’s biggest gap is at the point of introduction, since most of these consumers are introduced to wine through personal recommendations. “We’re doing a terrible job marketing wine in this space,” he said. “Grassroots advocacy and loyalty models are the clearest growth levers.”
His closing message was clear: “Go out among them, give them respect, for they are the future.”
Value in an age of abundance
Media strategist Priscilla Hennekam talked about consumer behaviour in a new information environment, where the world of wine is moving from a system built on scarcity to one based on abundance. Where limited knowledge, access, and distribution once protected value, technology has now created abundance. “In a world of abundance, the old logic of scarcity is exposed,” she said.
This availability affects consumer behaviour and the economy. “More information, instant comparison, and visible alternatives make it easier for consumers to replace wine with something else,” she said. In a world influenced by technology, conventional signals of value – scores, awards, expert language – look the same everywhere. “Abundance exposes sameness. The result is a crisis of value.”
“In a scarcity world, value came from being hard to access, but in an abundance world, value comes from being hard to replace.”
South African wine producers must ask themselves if they’ve become replaceable. “The path forward is a change from extraction to value creation – prioritising purpose, community, and care over volume,” she says. “Brands that solve real problems and make people feel something build a durable advantage.”
The political economy of wine
Political analyst Dr Mpumelelo Kansas Mkhabela turned the spotlight on the political and regulatory forces influencing South African wine. Declining trust in elections, public institutions, political parties, leadership, and the GNU creates an uncertain policy environment for the industry.
He explained that diplomacy-backed trade deals and agreements have been very effective at unlocking growth and expanding market access and warned against taking them for granted. “They have to be actively maintained,” he said. “The rivalry between China and the US is going to influence how products are perceived in different markets. African countries may benefit by positioning themselves strategically.”
The South Africa Wine Summit was made possible by the main sponsor, Nedbank, and co-sponsors Ardagh Glass Packaging, Santam, and the Western Cape Government.
Wanda Augustyn
Head of Brand and Communications
Tel: 021 276 0458
Email: wanda@sawine.co.za
